Over the past week, the dramatic U.S. operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro dominated headlines around the world. The mission was historic in geopolitical terms, but financial markets barely blinked. Benchmark equity indices, including the S&P 500, continued upward, while global oil prices showed little reaction rather than dramatic spikes or drops. This lack of market disruption highlights a critical reality: the event was strategically significant without being a supply shock. Reuters
The primary reason is that Venezuela’s oil output today is a fraction of what it once was. Decades of underinvestment, mismanagement, and sanctions have left production near historic lows. Despite possessing the world’s largest proven crude reserves on paper, Venezuela now contributes less than one percent of daily global supply, according to energy analysts. That means even a dramatic political shift does not instantly free up barrels into the market. In contrast, global crude markets continue to be driven by supply-demand fundamentals, and forecasts point to a period of oversupply that is pressuring prices lower. LinkedIn
Additionally, logistical and legal hurdles remain significant. Reviving Venezuelan oil infrastructure will require years of capital and political stability before it appreciably affects flows. With that in mind, markets are treating recent events as geopolitical noise rather than an immediate economic catalyst. In short, oil markets are focusing on barrels flowing today and supply fundamentals tomorrow, not the short-term headline risk.
And if That Wasn’t Enough… It’s worth noting how bad and isolated the Venezuelan economy has become. About 50 years ago, Venezuela represented about 1.0% of global GDP. Today, that has fallen to 0.01% - that does not even register as a blip on the global economy. Also, military conflicts have rarely caused large negative returns for the U.S. stock market. No one knows how things are going to end up in Venezuela, but the initial impact of last weekend’s event is not a big economic factor currently. Schwab 2025 Review with a Note on Venezuela
Greenland: I’m not even sure what to write on this topic, other than all the saber-rattling may be a ploy to either buy the country or obtain additional military access or more minerals. We will continue to watch the news to see if it escalates and starts affecting the economy, such as with trade or tariffs with Europe, but right now, all I can think of is how bizarre this all is. WSJ
BlackRock Outlook Webinar Summary: I listened to a webinar this week, hosted by BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world. There is no link to the webinar, but I have summarized the comments I found most intriguing and insightful, which I want to pass along.
Several prominent speakers struck an encouraging tone about the global outlook and long-term investment opportunities. Larry Fink, the CEO, Chairman, and Founder of BlackRock, pushed back on the idea of an artificial intelligence bubble. He argued instead that sustained investment in AI is essential, particularly as China continues to invest aggressively. He also noted that geopolitics may be moving toward a more stable phase, with the potential for a more peaceful global environment in 2026 if the war in Ukraine winds down and tensions in the Middle East continue to ease. His broader message was that headlines skew negative and often fail to reflect underlying progress.
Rick Rieder, the Chief Investment Officer of Global Fixed Income, echoed that optimism, emphasizing that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing despite softness in manufacturing and housing. He highlighted that we are in a “productivity renaissance” driven not only by AI but also by operational efficiencies, logistics, and improved data management. From an investment standpoint, he described the current environment as a golden age for fixed income, with inflation moderating in the 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent range and attractive yields available, though he was cautious in select areas such as subprime auto lending.
Other speakers discussed the portfolio benefits of private credit and private infrastructure. While we agree that certain private investments can add value and have selectively used private credit where appropriate, infrastructure opportunities have proven more challenging to implement effectively.
AI is Not a Panacea for Everything – Yet: The WSJ Newsroom tested a customized AI program that ran its vending machine in an experiment. AI would set prices, order inventory, and respond to customers and feedback. And boy, did the journalists test it and have fun. In the short span of three weeks, the vending machine gave away a free PlayStation, ordered a live fish, and offered to buy stun guns, pepper spray, cigarettes, and underwear. Quite the combo of consumer items! Eventually, its profits collapsed, and the vending machine went bankrupt. I guess there is more work to do to fulfill AI’s promise! WSJ
Financial Planning/Investment Strategy Corner:
New Year, New Mortgage? According to Bankrate.com, the average 30-year mortgage rate this week stands at 6.16% and for 15-year mortgages, the interest rate is 5.49%. Long-term mortgage interest rates have dropped more than 1.00% over the last year. It is also important to note that this is the average interest rate, meaning some banks may offer a lower interest rate. According to the website, the best 30-year mortgage rates can be over .50% lower than the average. A half a percentage point on the loan can result in thousands of dollars in savings annually and much more over the life of the loan. It’s important to shop around, but Zillow reports that more than two-thirds of homebuyers only submit one mortgage application. Housing prices are up more than 45% from five years ago, so shopping around for a lower rate can help ease your monthly payment or make it feasible to buy the home you really want. Either way, don’t cut yourself short by not looking around. And for those of you who have a high mortgage rate from the last few years, now may be the time to refinance, now that rates have receded from high levels. Bankrate.com CNBC
Quick Hits:
- Now that the holidays are over, how you can help detox your body: BBC News
- If one of your goals this year is to declutter your home, start with your bedroom: Axios
- If you’re trying to improve your health and wellness in 2026 – keep it simple: AP News
- Ten great places to visit in 2026: WSJ
- And the biggest travel trends for 2026(#1 is luxury train travel!): Condé Nast Traveler
Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow (Because Skiing and Snowboarding!): Winter is skiing and snowboarding season in New England. Here are a few quick resources for those of you planning activities this winter:
- Ski New England provides information on ski areas, resorts, and the best times to ski in New England. They also offer updates on weather conditions and snowfall. Ski New England
- The New England Nordic Ski Association is an organization that provides information, such as programs and events, for all levels of cross-country skiing. NENSA
- New England Ski Resorts Map lets you filter on what type of activity you want to do and where you can do it (Heli Skiing, anyone?). New England Ski Resorts Map
- And for you hardier folks who enjoy uphilling (aka alpine touring, backcountry skiing, skinning), this website offers resources such as passes, rental equipment shops, safety guides, etc. Uphill New England
What is the “Minimum Dose” for Strength Training Benefits? Recent research delivers inspiring news for anyone who feels pressed for time but wants to get healthier and stronger. Studies show that you do not need long, complicated workouts to make meaningful progress. For beginners, just one well-structured strength training session per week focusing on a handful of key movements can kick-start muscle growth and support metabolism and bone health. Over time, you can add a second workout as your schedule allows. The emphasis is on quality and consistency over quantity, meaning even minimal time in the gym can deliver real benefits if you push your muscles in the right way. Whether your goal is better fitness, more energy, or longevity, getting started with manageable weekly sessions makes it easier to build lasting healthy habits. NPR - Research says this is the 'minimum dose' of gym time you need to see results
Quote fest: A bunch of skiing quotes, because I couldn’t help myself (and I’m not even a good skier😊).
“Life is like skiing. Just like skiing, the goal is not to get to the bottom of the hill. It’s to have a bunch of good runs before the sun sets.” Seth Godin
“For me, personally, skiing holds everything. I used to race cars, but skiing is a step beyond that. It removes the machinery and puts you one step closer to the elements. And it’s a complete physical expression of freedom.” Robert Redford
“The sport of skiing consists of wearing three thousand dollars’ worth of clothes and equipment and driving two hundred miles in the snow in order to stand around at a bar and get drunk.”
P.J. O’Rourke
“When hell freezes over, I’ll ski there too.” Unknown
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