As impending fatherhood looms over me, the articles and news I’ve consumed recently are parent and child related. Maybe it’s like the sensation one feels when you buy a new car, and suddenly you notice the same car more and more on the roads around you. Last week I was at a holiday party and had my phone set to ring – in case I got the call. The only problem was the basement bar we were in didn’t have any reception and I didn’t realize that for nearly 2.5 hours. All was fine.
Recently, even my typical escapisms have provided little relief:
- I heard this one last week driving from an appointment with my wife: Malcolm Gladwell | Conan O'Brien Needs A Friend (the full clip is good but contains explicit language. The parent portion starts at the 5:30 mark).
- I turned to the New Yorker Magazine but discovered this article, looking at adults through the lens of being giant children: Are Grownups Just Giant Kids? | The New Yorker. My grandmother had a saying that people are who they are by age five and you can’t change them after that.
- John Kenney is one of my favorite poets (his writing is similar to Billy Collins) and I always call back to this interview from a few years ago: 'Love Poems (For People With Children)' | NPR
Onto the most effective and time-tested escapism - work:
Fed Decision: The Federal Reserve met on Wednesday and cut interest rates by 0.25%, which had been indicated and communicated to markets. The overnight borrowing rate target range is now 4.25%-4.50%, with the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates 1.00% in 2024. Equity and bond markets sold off after the Federal Reserve provided guidance of two additional rate cuts in 2025, citing inflation remaining sticky and above their 2.0% goal. The dollar strengthened against other currencies around the announcement. The Federal Reserve also extended projections for 2.0% inflation to be reached in 2027 versus an earlier projection of 2026. The Fed cited recent strong economic data and indicated they are looking for further progress on inflation, before cutting interest rates again. Fed Meeting Rate Cuts | Bloomberg
Blue Zone Research: The idea of ‘Blue Zones’, in which there are regions in the world where people live longer than others due to physical activity, low stress, and a healthy diet, gained popularity in recent years. However, the research may not be as clear: The secret to living to 110? Bad record-keeping, researcher says. The researcher found it is difficult to validate old birth certificates and people tend to lie. In Japan, one centenarian had been dead since 1978, but the family still collected his pension payments for 30 years. The Japanese government later reviewed the number of centenarians, and 82% were either dead or missing. While the research dismissing the idea of Blue Zones is still being peer-reviewed, the author says the secret to longevity is: “Listen (to) your GP (doctor), do some exercise, don't drink, don't smoke -- that's it."
Financial Planning/Investment Strategy Corner:
U.S. Productivity Growth: Since the global financial crisis, U.S. equity markets have significantly outperformed international equity markets. It’s also clear in the chart below that since the global pandemic, U.S. equity markets have continued outperforming international equities:
Part of the explanation is U.S. GDP growth compared to the rest of the world, with U.S. GDP up 11.4% since 2019, where the Eurozone has grown by a third of that (Why America’s economy is soaring ahead of its rivals). A major part of U.S. GDP growth is faster productivity growth. Rising productivity means the economy uses resources more efficiently, which leads to higher wages and living standards. In the past five years, U.S. productivity growth is up 8.9%. By comparison, over the same period, productivity growth in the Eurozone is up 0.8% and Canada is negative.
Slower productivity in Europe may be due to the impact of the war in Ukraine on European countries. The larger reason is the investment in research and development into technology, with U.S. technology firms leading the way. If the U.S. technology sector was excluded, U.S. and European productivity growth would be at the same level over the past 20 years. One reason for the divergence is the approach of competitiveness, where in the U.S. the landscape is striving to innovate, while the rest of the world (excluding China) is focusing on cost competitiveness. Investment by China has also crowded out non-US countries. The environment for innovation is different among countries, with U.S. companies and individuals more comfortable taking risks.
Things are changing and countries are reacting. Efforts are being made for other countries to invest more in technology, with Japan, the UK, and Canada dedicating spending to boost productivity growth. Additionally, things may change regionally if country policies do not. The Economist analyzed a recent survey of where college graduates would choose to migrate if there were no constraints to moving to a certain country. The list has consistently been led by the U.S., Canada, and Australia but respondents in Germany and the UK prefer destinations of Italy, Portugal, and Greece are becoming more popular. That being said, I am not sure if a country’s weather or climate was controlled for in the survey: Our footloose index: the most attractive countries for graduates.
Quick Hits:
- In a study result that no one finds surprising: Moms Carry 71% of the Mental Load | Neuroscience News
- These 15 Majestic Photos Show Just Why Humans Adore Horses | Smithsonian
- How Christmas Trees Could Become a Source of Low-Carbon Protein | WIRED
- Your Black Plastic Utensils (Probably) Aren’t Killing You After All | Lifehacker
- Signs you may be an instinctive parent: Instinctive Parenting: Pros, Cons, and Examples | Parenting.com
Quote: “I want to be clear about this. If you wrote from experience, you'd get maybe one book, maybe three poems. Writers write from empathy.” – Nikki Giovanni
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