The market, as measured by the S&P 500, hit its 28th record high of 2025 earlier this week. This statistic alone may sound like the market is in a bubble with a correction or worse imminent, but as one of college football’s greats famously says, “Not so fast my friend!” - Lee Corso 😊. Let’s provide some context. Data from 1952-2024 shows the S&P 500 reaches a new all-time high around 7% of the trading days each year (that equals around 18 days – give or take a few). More broadly, the S&P 500 trades within 5% of all-time highs on an astounding 44% of trading days - again, dating all the way back to 1952 - when the 5-day trading week was established. This points to the fact that markets spend most of the time up, not down – with bull markets lasting between 2-3x as long as bear markets. While down markets do occur, and they are no fun to experience at the time, markets have always bounced back. 10 Things You Should Know About Bull Markets; https://www.bespokepremium.com/interactive/posts/think-big-blog/sp-500-percent-of-time-at-new-highs
Two More Fed Meetings in 2025
A quick note on The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC): With the 0.25% cut last week, the fed funds rate is now at a range of 4.00%-4.25%. While the Federal Reserve balances their dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, preventing further weakness in the job market seems to be taking priority right now. The FOMC meets two more times in 2025: October 28-29 and December 9-10, with many economists and strategists expecting another one or two 0.25% cuts. As I might remind readers “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future” (Yogi Berra). Here is the move in rates across maturities over the last 3 months –– and reinforces the anticipatory nature of the markets alluded to in last week’s newsletter:
Government Shutdown Looming – Same Story, Different Year?
With the federal government’s 2025 fiscal year ending next week, funding for 2026 is far from being determined, meaning another government shutdown is looming. Congress has so far implemented 0 of the 12 full-year appropriations bills to fund the government for Fiscal Year (FY) 2026. Without getting into all the nuances of government funding - mandatory vs. discretionary spending, appropriations committees, etc. - here is a Q&A worth reading - Government Shutdowns Q&A: Everything You Should Know-Tue, 09/16/2025 - 12:00 | Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Financial Planning Corner
We have talked before about the different provisions of the SECURE ACT 2.0 and how they would impact clients. One of the provisions was related to mandatory Roth catch-up contributions in employer-sponsored retirement plans for certain high-income participants who are age 50 and older (earning more than $145,000 in W-2 wages). The rule still goes into effect January 1, 2026. However, final regulations released last week by the IRS allow some flexibility for plan sponsors – think of it as a grace period – allowing them until December 31, 2026, to adjust plan documents accordingly. While this is fairly technical, it might be worth reaching out to your HR department to see how your employer is administering the change.
Below is the new section we are incorporating monthly on cybersecurity
Cybersecurity Strategy Corner:
By Wendi Smith
Passwords versus Passkeys
Passwords and passkeys are both online tools for proving your identity and allowing you access to an online service, but they work differently.
A password is something you create and share with the online service—a string of characters you type to log into an account. Passwords rely on you for their length, complexity, and uniqueness across sites. In the cyber world, passwords are vulnerable to phishing, data breaches or other security hacking.
Passkeys are not generated by you but by your device. Passkeys are two unique mathematical algorithms that generate a shared cipher to encode data into an unintelligible format on one end and then decode it correctly on the other end. One passkey resides on your device, and the other passkey resides at the online site, therefore, the two passkeys maintain no shared information to each other like a password.
The tricky part to passkeys lies with the passkey on your device. If anything happens to your device, the online passkey is impossible to open. For this reason, companies started utilizing secure cloud-based servers as a way to store and access your passkey on multiple devices. Apple uses iCloud Keychain and Google uses their Password Manager to sync and share passwords and passkeys. If you don’t want to use a password/passkey manager, you should also set up a backup login at the online site.
The passkey on your device is then stored in cyber solitary confinement, so you are still asked to authenticate before the key is opened and used. Authentication on your device is whatever you set it to be such as a pin, biometrics (thumb print, face ID, etc.), or two factor authentication. The online site may also request additional authentication, like a code texted to your cell phone or approval through an authentication app, before they access their passkey. This authentication piece is what frustrates most of us! 😊
While passkeys are much more secure than passwords, they also require more layers of authentication and ultimately you will probably have a hybrid of passkeys and a backup access method. If you want a deeper dive, here is a slightly lengthy, but very thorough blog on passkeys. https://specopssoft.com/blog/passkeys-benefits-limitations-passwords/
Quick Hits:
- Traveling this holiday season – a few tips: Holiday travel 2025: Americans think they waited too long to book, but there's still time - The Points Guy
- Another great read: The Greatness Mindset: Unlock the Power... book by Lewis Howes
- Records broken in the Northeast –- Maine has historically dry summer; NH has driest summer on record
- Ways to prepare your home for the upcoming winter (yikes) season - 11 Tips For Preparing Your Home For Winter | Constellation
Accountability – a Guiding Principle
I keep hearing lately about certain public figures being held accountable for their words and actions. Accountability, as defined by the Merriam-Webster dictionary is - an obligation or willingness to accept responsibility or to account for one’s actions. Accountability means actions have consequences. When no one is held to account – what is the incentive for their behavior to change? There isn’t one. Accountability promotes self-improvement and growth – hopefully both personally and professionally. When it comes to the relationship we have with our clients, we hope we are a sincere, empathetic accountability partner. On the flip side, we want our clients to hold us accountable. One way this can be measured is through client surveys. We appreciate the responses we got back. There is nothing more rewarding than making a positive difference in the lives of our clients, and it re-energizes us not just by knowing the things we are doing well and will continue to do, but just as importantly, ways we can improve. There are a few days left to complete our client survey, and we would love more feedback!
Quote: “Small disciplines repeated with consistency everyday lead to great achievements gained slowly over time.” —John C. Maxwell
Thank you for reading RSWA Financial Advisor Insights! We welcome feedback, and please forward this to a friend! Be well, take care, and stay safe!
