The federal government officially shut down on October 1, 2025, when Congress failed to pass funding legislation to carry agencies into the new fiscal year.
How long will it last? That remains uncertain, but as of now, neither side seems willing to budge, and votes from both political parties will be needed to pass spending bills. The White House and OMB have instructed agencies to prepare for potential reductions in force rather than just temporary furloughs. This could be for leverage, but it is also signaling that this shutdown could extend weeks or months if political gridlock continues. Earlier shutdowns of similar size have dragged on for 16 days or more, with the 2018–19 shutdown reaching 35 days.
Every day the shutdown persists, citizens experience tangible impacts: roughly 750,000 federal employees are being furloughed, and services across agencies are suspended or scaled back. Public health monitoring (CDC), release of economic data (Labor Department), safety inspections, and federal grant programs are stalled. Meanwhile, essential programs like Social Security, Medicare, and veterans’ health care are designed to continue, though their administrative support may slow.
For everyday Americans, the immediate pressures will show up in delayed applications or reviews processed by federal agencies, closed national parks and museums, and uncertainties for government employees and contractors waiting to be paid until funding is restored. Another wildcard in how long this lasts? How patient will citizens and voters be when they start having trouble with government services, and they are already fed up with Washington? WSJ Greg Valliere-AGF
Jobs Continuing to Slow: Private payroll numbers for September were released by ADP this week, which showed that companies reduced jobs by 32,000. Economists had expected an increase of 45,000. Further, August payroll numbers were adjusted from an initially reported increase of 54,000 jobs to a loss of 3,000. With the government shutting down, the Bureau of Labor Statistics' nonfarm payrolls report for September may not be released any time soon. Therefore, this may be the last jobs report the Federal Reserve officials see before their October 28-29 meeting. Either way, the continued weakening of the labor market bolsters the chance of the Fed continuing to lower short-term rates at the meeting. CNBC
Potential Lower Drug Prices Coming: This week, Pfizer reached a settlement that will rein in how much it can raise prices on certain widely used medicines, a move aimed at addressing public frustration over high drug costs. The agreement requires Pfizer to cap annual price hikes and provide rebates if increases exceed set limits. While this primarily affects Medicaid, the impact will extend to consumers since many of the covered drugs are also marketed directly to patients.
For individuals paying out of pocket or with high-deductible insurance plans, the deal could help lower their costs for prescription medications. However, the settlement doesn’t require Pfizer to reduce existing prices, which remain a major concern for households managing chronic conditions. Consumer advocates think this will only help a small subset of consumers and that broader reforms are needed to make drugs more affordable more broadly. AP News What is ‘TrumpRx,’ What Drugs are Available and How Does It Work? - WSJ
Financial Planning/Investment Strategy Corner:
Economic Crosswinds and Portfolio Positioning: In preparing the newsletter, I was reminded of a conversation I had this week with a client about portfolio positioning with all that is going on and what a difficult environment it is. The economy is navigating multiple, often conflicting forces. Legal immigration has slowed significantly, with deportations and voluntary departures reducing the labor pool—pressuring agriculture and even rents in some regions, adding an inflationary undertone. Hiring momentum has cooled, and while AI is improving productivity and profitability, it may also be displacing certain jobs. Corporate earnings remain robust and GDP growth solid, yet tariffs are reshaping supply chains, driving inflationary pressures, and altering capital expenditure plans. Layer on a government shutdown of uncertain duration—with the possibility of permanent federal job losses—and it’s clear investors face a complex environment.
So how should portfolios be positioned? In our view, the answer is much the same as it has always been:
- Diversification: Maintain broad global exposure across large, mid, and small companies.
- Balance: Pair equities with high-quality bonds to buffer downturns.
- Liquidity: Maintain adequate cash or short-term reserves to cover near-term spending needs and reduce the risk of forced selling.
- Efficiency: Keep expenses and taxes as low as possible.
- Personalization: Align portfolios with client goals and risk tolerance.
- Prudence: Phase in large cash allocations to equities to manage volatility risk.
- Discipline: Rebalance when portfolios drift meaningfully from targets.
- Perseverance: Remain invested through market cycles.
It may feel boring at times, but in investing, you can choose excitement or results, but rarely both. The market rewards discipline over drama, and when it comes to building lasting wealth, boring is the smart kind of beautiful.
Quick Hits:
- How your daily life and tasks change when a younger person wears an 80-Year-Old age-simulation suit: WSJ MIT News
- Forget the influencers, dermatologists say a simple shower is a good shower: AP News
- The best new books coming out in October: Bookglow NY Times
- What to stream and watch that’s coming out this month: Forbes TV Guide
- The life has been transformed of Neuralink’s first human case study: Fortune
- 50 Pumpkin recipes for the fall, including pumpkin scones, Mmmmm: The Foodellers
“Manifesting” Your Destiny: More experts say that “manifesting” — combining meditation with clear intentions — can boost mental well-being. The idea is simple: when you visualize your goals and write them down regularly, your brain begins to treat them as achievable, shaping your thoughts and actions. Positive thinking alone isn’t enough, but when paired with realistic plans, manifesting works like mental training. Repetition and focus help reinforce what matters most to you. Manifesting isn’t magic; it’s about using focus and consistency to align your mind and habits with the future you want. This sounds to me like the modern version of Napoleon Hill’s book, Think and Grow Rich (which was not just about money but self-improvement). Axios Napoleon Hill Foundation
Portsmouth Wharf Painting: Firm friend and local Portsmouth/Portland painter Carson Jackson visited the Portsmouth office on a beautiful September day to do a little painting. Carson is known for his paintings of a variety of topics, including those of the Portsmouth harbor and Memorial Bridge. One of his paintings hangs in the Portsmouth office, which many visitors have commented on. Below is a picture of Carson painting from a new perspective of the harbor from the wharf right outside the RSWA office door. We love supporting the wonderfully talented local artists in our area! Carson Jackson | Contemporary Artist
Quote: “Whatever the mind can conceive and believe, it can achieve.” Napoleon Hill
Thank you for reading RSWA Financial Advisor Insights! We welcome feedback, and please forward this to a friend! Be well, take care, and stay safe!
