Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its July monthly U.S. jobs report, which revealed that 73,000 jobs were added in the month, below the 115,000 expected. With any employment report, it’s essential to review the revisions of the two prior months as part of the survey. The revisions were significant, revealing 258,000 fewer jobs in May and June. The three-month average of U.S. job gains dropped to 35,000 as a result, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. Employers added 73,000 jobs in July, falling short of forecasts | CBS News
President Trump, in response to the report, fired the BLS Commissioner, Erika McEntarfer, citing that the data was “rigged” and manipulated to cause political damage, without providing any evidence. The BLS’s process of conducting the job survey insulates the commissioner from direct control over collecting the data, who does not have a role in preparing the monthly jobs report. BLS employees contact households in a sample, and, in subsequent months, employees rotate and survey different subsets of the original sample, preserving statistical reliability and integrity. By the time the commissioner sees the job numbers on Wednesday before the Friday data release, the results are prepared. Revisions to the U.S. job survey, particularly in the first month, are not out of the ordinary, as the results are very preliminary. Over time, revisions to the job survey have improved, where in the 1970s revisions were off by 1%, data through 2024 shows revisions averaged closer to 0.2%. The employment survey has had a lower response rate, down from 90% before the pandemic to 60-70% now. Former BLS officials point to cuts to their budget, down 22% since 2010, preventing them from modernizing the survey. How does the BLS gather data? | CNBC Real Strains Inside the BLS Made It Vulnerable | WSJ
There is a risk in making partisan accusations and taking actions around government data, as it erodes trust in future figures and bleeds into market confidence if the data is thought to be influenced in some way. Beyond jobs data, the BLS collects and reports inflation data that then impacts future Social Security benefits, taxes owed, and other government programs. BLS data is relied on by market participants, consumers, businesses, and the Federal Reserve, as well as other policymakers, to make decisions based on economic conditions. While there is statistical reliability of the BLS survey, the figures are monitored and backed up by other government agency data and private data providers who offer different sources and measurements to test the reliability of the data. This should offer some shield to a potential policy error if the BLS data comes into question. The Effort To Undermine Trust in US Economic Data | Advisors 4 Advisors
IRS Tax Payments & Refunds: The Trump Administration has ordered the IRS to stop sending and accepting checks as payments beginning September 30th, 2025. All payments (with some exceptions for some individuals and circumstances) to the IRS will need to be made utilizing electronic fund transfer methods, like debit or credit cards. Tax refunds will need to be received via direct deposit. We are aware that some RSWA clients use checks to make annual and quarterly payments to the IRS, and we will be communicating with clients about what they will need to do to make future payments. IRS to stop sending, accepting checks | MSN
Tax Savings Hitting Corporate Balance Sheets: The recent federal tax bill has already hit some of the balance sheets of corporations. Between allowing for 100% bonus depreciation, accelerating upfront expenses for research and development, and relaxing the limit on deductibility of interest expenses, businesses are seeing significant tax savings. These savings allow companies to bolster investment in new capital projects or may increase a company's free cash flow. Proponents of the tax bill feel it should help boost company stock valuations. Cash Windfall From Tax Law | WSJ
Financial Planning/Investment Strategy Corner:
529 Plan Changes: The tax bill also made some changes to 529 plans, which are typically associated with college expenses. Beginning in 2026, 529 plans increase the eligible amount to pay for private K-12 education expenses from $10,000 to $20,000 per student, annually. Starting July 4, 2025, other eligible expenses for 529 plans have expanded beyond tuition, room and board, and textbooks to include standardized test fees and professional exams. 529 Plans for Private School Tuition | savingforcollege.com
Active Investment Management and Volatility: Active investment managers say they perform better in bouts of volatility, but performance data compiled by Morningstar does not back up that assertion. In the market volatility spike in the first half of 2025, just one in three active managers outperformed peers in their category over the trailing 12 months through June 2025. The number of active fixed income managers experiencing the largest change in outperformance compared to their peers, as reported in Morningstar’s June 2024 report, is notable. While one year of performance is something to monitor versus react to, over the long run, real estate and fixed income active managers tend to outperform their peers. Morningstar found that one of the largest determinants of active and passive managers’ success rates versus their peers is in the lowest-cost vehicles. Passive Funds Beat Active Funds Amid Market Volatility in 2025 | Morningstar
Quick Hits:
- For travelers looking for more laid-back, local food, try the Bib Gourmand list: The 'other' Michelin award travelers should know
- Maybe a dream job for some: Italy's undercover pizza detectives
- Tomato Season is starting: Tomato flights are trending — and perfect for summer entertaining | CBC Life
- Continuing on the food theme: Feast Your Eyes on These Paintings From the Impressionist Era | Smithsonian Magazine
After hiking around the Bold Coast on vacation, Quote: "The mountains are calling, and I must go." – John Muir
