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06.10.2022 by David Robinson

World Bank Warns of Global Stagflation

Referencing the pandemic and the impact of the Russian war on Ukraine, particularly with respect to energy and food prices, the World Bank lowered its 2022 global economic growth forecast this week to 2.9%. Its updated 2022 forecast for the U.S. and Eurozone is 2.5%. World Bank Group David Malpass, the World Bank president, commented that “[T]he Risk from stagflation is considerable.” Stagflation describes an environment characterized by above average inflation but with below average economic growth. Looking forward, the World Bank now forecasts 3% global growth for 2023 and 2024. For the U.S., it projects 2.2% and 1.9% economic growth for 2023 and 2024, respectively. Washington Post    Wall Street Journal  Wikipedia (World Bank Group)

  • The CBO Projects Inflation: The independent Congressional Budget Office agrees that inflation is likely to be well above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target until 2024. Washington Post
  • Many Americans Are Delaying Retirement Due to Inflation: A recent survey concluded that as many as 25% of Americans will delay their retirement due to inflation. CNBC Will this trend persist if prospective retirees see that inflation is abating down the road in a year or two?

Is Remote Work Working? A spirited debate over whether remote working and/or hybrid arrangements are effective continues. Meanwhile, some employers are signaling that they want their employees back into the office. Axios

Cancer Drug Shows Remarkable Results: The report that a drug targeting a type of rectal cancer had been 100% effective in a small trial made major medical news. New York Times Axios It is a first for any cancer drug to achieve this level of efficacy. Nor were there significant side effects. This drug utilized an immunotherapy strategy that unmasked cancer cells, enabling the immune system to destroy them. What I have not read yet is whether this approach has promise for other types of cancer.

Choosing Between Pre-Tax and Roth 401(k) Plans? This is an excellent article comparing the pros and cons of contributing to 401(k) plans on either a pre-tax or post-tax basis via a Roth 401(k). It makes a compelling case that even savers in higher tax brackets should consider saving some money on a post-tax basis. CNBC

Optimizing Bank Savings Accounts: With rates beginning to rise, it is becoming worthwhile to shop for better rates on savings accounts. Online banks are an option too but make sure that you are getting FDIC insurance. Washington Post

Short Takes:

  • Tin Star Returns! Amazon Prime has released Season 3 of Tin Star. Starring the inestimable Tim Roth, this show may be among my top five dramas of all time. In this, the last season, the Worths return to Liverpool to settle old scores. Tin Star is heavy on gun fights and may not be everyone’s cup of tea. Tin Star (TV Series) - Wikipedia
  • A Long Night in Paris by Dov Alfon: This espionage novel features Israeli intelligence agents operating in both Paris and Israel and in conflict with Chinese intelligence operatives. I have listened to this one using Audible. Apart from enjoying the story, I have a growing fascination with listening to podcasts, books, etc. goodreads
  • Climate Change Is Local: Many of us understandably focus on the global implications of climate change. But different areas of the world and even of the U.S. have and will experience climate change in varying degrees (pun intended). The linked interactive chart shows how individual states have experienced average temperature increases over the last century. Maine and New Hampshire fall into the category of highest average increases. Axios
  • Simple Exercises to Strengthen a Relationship: Looking for ways to strengthen your relationship with your partner? Tara Parker-Pope offers seven simple exercises to try. New York Times 

RSWA Webinar Featuring Fritz Meyer: Fritz returns! Look for a webinar invitation to join us in an update on the markets by this highly respected market strategist. The webinar has been scheduled for Thursday, July 21st at 4:30pm.

A Quote to Consider:The best idea is worthless without execution.” James Clear

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