This week, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady as the Fed continues their cautious “wait-and-see” approach. Despite ongoing pressure from the White House to cut interest rates, Federal Reserve governors have stayed focused on economic data. With recent reports showing stable employment and easing inflation, there’s little urgency to adjust rates at this time. However, the Fed is keeping an eye on tariffs, which could drive prices up and slow growth down. CNBC
Future Fed decisions are less certain. Financial markets are increasingly anticipating the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut to arrive in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, bond futures traders are pricing in about a 60% probability of a September cut. Looking further ahead, the odds rise to 88% that the Fed will lower rates at least twice before the end of the year. Morningstar
Muted Market Reaction to More Middle East Unrest – The unexpected escalation between Israel and Iran caught many investors off guard. So far, however, the impact on U.S. and international stock markets has been relatively subdued, though investors are watching closely for any signs of a broader or prolonged conflict. One notable market reaction has been a more than 10% jump in crude oil prices since the attacks began, reigniting concerns about the role of energy costs in inflation.
Baby Accounts – As part of a proposed budget bill moving through Congress, newborns could soon be the newest investors. The Senate version of President Trump’s budget includes a proposal for new tax-advantaged savings accounts for children—referred to as “Trump Accounts,” “Money Accounts for Growth and Advancement,” or “MAGA accounts” (yes, those are the actual names being considered).
Each eligible child will receive a one-time $1,000 deposit from the federal government, funded by the U.S. Treasury, as part of a newborn pilot program. To qualify, the child must be a U.S. citizen born between January 1, 2024, and December 31, 2028, and both parents must have Social Security numbers. Parents can contribute up to $5,000 annually, with funds invested in a diversified U.S. stock index fund. Earnings grow tax-deferred, and qualified withdrawals are taxed at long-term capital gains rates, while non-qualified withdrawals are taxed as ordinary income. Starting at age 18, funds can be used for education, a first home, or starting a business, with full access for any purpose at age 30. CNBC WSJ
Financial Planning Corner:
The Best Time to Buy or Sell a House
If I had to guess, there's a good chance you've been part of a conversation in the past few years that included something like: “Did you see what that house sold for?” or “Can you believe what they’re asking for that place?” With home prices soaring and what seemed like endless demand, many homeowners started asking themselves, “Should I think about selling?” Meanwhile, buyers were left wondering, “Is now really the right time to be buying?”
But according to The Wall Street Journal, things may be starting to shift. More homes are hitting the market—but surprisingly, buyers aren’t biting. As of April, there were roughly half a million more homes listed than there were buyers. Mindsets are likely shifting, too. Sellers may now be thinking they missed their window, while buyers are wondering if waiting could lead to a better deal.
So, that begs the question: When is the right time to consider buying or selling a house? Like any good answer, it starts with, “It depends.” Let’s dive in.
A look at the numbers
The chart above shows the average sales price of houses sold in the United States dating back to January 1970. When looking at this chart, two things immediately jump out:
- Prices have gone up a lot since 1970. The average sales price was $27,000 in 1970, today it is $503,800.
- Material declines in home sale prices aren’t that common.
While home prices have steadily risen—and that’s certainly been a win for homeowners—I tend to view a home primarily as a place to live. Any financial gain is really just a nice bonus. If you annualize the rate of return on home prices over this time period, it works out to about 5.36% per year. Not bad, but that doesn’t account for all the other costs that come with owning a home—maintenance, insurance, property taxes, and so on. For comparison, the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond returned 6.15%, and U.S. stocks returned 10.86% annually over the same stretch, with far fewer costs and headaches. So, from an investment standpoint, your primary residence probably isn’t your best-performing asset—but the equity you build does help offset the cost of ownership and is usually better than the alternative of renting.
The second piece of this is the consistent upward trend in home values. For buyers holding out for a better entry point, the historical odds unfortunately aren’t in your favor. Since 1970, on a rolling one-year basis, home prices were higher a year later 83% of the time. The only periods of meaningful, prolonged declines came in the early 1990s and the late 2000s—those two stretches account for most of the instances where home prices actually dropped. In other words, unless you were buying during one of those rare downturns, you probably ended up paying more than the same house was worth the year before.
Ok Donovan, get to the answer already…
Focus on your timeline, not the housing market’s
If the decision to buy or sell a home were based purely on numbers, the best time to sell would be never—home prices have historically continued to rise. And the best time to buy? That was in the past. But of course, real life doesn’t work like that. Financial decisions aren’t made in a vacuum, and buying or selling a home is no exception. Like any major financial choice, it should be rooted in your personal circumstances.
Rather than trying to time the housing market, it's usually better to base the decision on your timeline, your needs, and what you can afford.
The best time to buy comes when you find a home that meets your space and location needs—and fits within your financial means. The best time to sell is when another living situation better matches your lifestyle, goals, or preferences.
A few caveats and notes:
- This perspective applies to primary residences. Investment properties come with a very different set of financial and economic considerations.
- Real estate is highly local. While this view reflects national trends, your local market may tell a different story—and that’s often what matters most.
Quick Hits:
- No, you aren’t crazy. It has rained for 13 Saturdays in a row. WMUR
- Being “smart” in your field usually means more than just being able to pass a test. Here are a few different kinds of smart: Collaborative Fund
- What are the best ways everyday people can use AI today? Well, I asked AI to help: Perplexity
- The hottest travel trend – Sightseeing, at night Travel and Leisure
- New Microsoft findings show that employees are working outside of “normal” business hours more than ever Axios
The Future of College Sports – Earlier this month, a federal judge approved an antitrust settlement years in the making, officially paving the way for NCAA Division I schools to directly pay athletes who compete for their programs. This marks a major departure from the traditional model of college athletics. For decades, student-athletes were considered “amateurs,” compensated through scholarships and other benefits, but barred from earning money for their athletic performance. Now, that whole model will be upended.
A key shift began in 2021, when a court ruling allowed athletes to profit from their Name, Image, and Likeness (NIL), transforming the recruiting landscape. With the new settlement, athletes will also be eligible to receive direct payments from the NCAA and its member schools—sharing in the revenues they help generate. While this is a clear win for players gaining financial recognition, it also raises concerns about the long-term impact on smaller, less profitable college sports such as swimming, gymnastics, tennis, and track, as funding increasingly flows to major revenue-generating sports like football and basketball. AP News Bleacher Report
Quote: “The older I get the more I realize how many kinds of smart there are. There are a lot of kinds of smart. There are a lot of kinds of stupid, too.” – Jeff Bezos
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