September Jobs and Earnings Season Begins; Medicare Changes to Watch For

Our daughter – nearing two years old – entered daycare this fall. We worried she was becoming too clingy to Mom (certainly not clinging to Dad). Our daughter needed it though – we became all too boring for her. There were only so many afternoons where everyone was exasperated and “Frog!” (Frog and Toad Show) was the only demand and remedy. We crept into daycare initially – half days – ensuring she would be okay (mostly us). Dad was the only heartless soul capable of the initial drop offs, but she never batted an eye. Every day she wanders in and observes, quietly. All told, it’s one of the hardest things to bring yourself to do, but maintaining faith that it's likely going to be better for everyone. Even factoring in the recent sickness and sleep regression.

We went to a Fall Fair this weekend, and our daughter just wandered on her own, as I stayed back 10-15 feet. Parents and grandparents admired her independence (or wondered where the parents were) as she navigated all the vendor tents. Maybe I lost sight of her for a few seconds, but someday, it will have to be longer.

As investors and advisors (and parents, new and old), it’s important to acknowledge risks, frustrations, and worries, but also, it may work out if you press through. The long term is the focus, and short-term fluctuations shouldn’t derail a plan.

September Jobs Report: Last Friday, the September jobs report was released, and hiring came in lower than expected (29k for the month vs. 84k expected). Revisions to August and July hiring were lower as well, bringing the three-month average for job growth to about 50k jobs. While the employment picture is currently stable, a sign of job market weakness is showing in the year-over-year rate of average hourly earnings. Earnings grew by 3.0%, while the most recent reading on CPI inflation from August was 3.4%:

With inflation outpacing earnings in a low hiring environment, this may lead the Federal Reserve to hold off on an October interest rate hike and wait to review fresh data before their early December meeting. Jobs Report September 2026 | CNBC

Market Breadth and Earnings: The S&P 500 closed at all-time highs on Tuesday. It just may not feel like it. The AI trade continues to power technology stocks higher, while banks, healthcare, and other sectors declined from August levels. Less than half of companies in the S&P 500 closed above their 200-day moving average recently, reflecting a lack of breadth in the underlying index. The S&P 500 Hits a New Record High, Powered by Tech—and Not Much Else | WSJ

Earnings season begins next week, and analysts revised their earnings expectations higher in the quarter. This is out of the ordinary, as earnings estimates typically decline slightly throughout a quarter (cynically, lowered expectations make results easier to beat and make companies look better). Earnings growth in the third quarter is expected to grow 29.5% year-over-year for the S&P 500, driven by technology, energy, and consumer services sectors. If earnings growth rises above 25%, it will be the third consecutive quarter above 25%: S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026.

Strong Bond Auction: With the recent rise in U.S. interest rates, investors were watching one of the more exciting events in markets: a government bond auction. On Wednesday, the U.S. Treasury sold $39 billion in 10-year notes at auction. Demand was strong from global central banks and pulled the 10-year and 30-year bonds off their decade-high levels: 10-year Treasury Yield Falls from 24-year High | CNBC.

Financial Planning/Investment Strategy Corner:

Medicare Open Enrollment and Changes: Open enrollment for Medicare begins October 15^th and ends December 7^th. There may be big changes this year, where up to 10% of Medicare Advantage participants may be forced out of their plans for 2027. Insurers are also looking to cut costs, so services may be cut or co-pays may increase. On Medicare? Stay Alert This Fall | Barron's

There are a few options if your current plan is discontinued Losing Your Medicare Plan? There’s a Silver Lining | Barron's:

• Do nothing. You then are enrolled in traditional Medicare January 1st. You will need to add any Part D prescription or Medigap policies on your own, though.
• Select a new plan during open enrollment. Advantage participants forced out of their plan would not be subject to the traditional medical underwriting and can buy a Medigap plan.

Overall, selecting a plan can be overwhelming and complicated. RSWA recommends consulting with a Medicare specialist to understand the implications of any changes to your Medicare coverage. Also, watch out for Medicare fraud – uninvited calls, texts, and emails to enroll you should be ignored.

Quick Hits:

• Apple TV (where we get our Frog and Toad) did very well at this year’s Emmys: ‎Apple TV Proves Its Streaming Dominance | Collider.com. The current season of Slow Horses is great, and Widow’s Bay is one of the funnier, more creative shows I have seen recently.
• Halloween is upon us, and people plan to celebrate and spend: Halloween Data and Trends | NRF. Also, here’s why Halloween seems to come to stores earlier every year | NRF. No one should be surprised that we will be dressing our daughter as a frog this year.
• I’ve had many faux pas in my life, but trying to pronounce endive to a Whole Foods employee still lingers. This recipe looks good, though: Vegetarian Endive Au Gratin | The Guardian
• What is better than Hilarious Animal Shenanigans | Smithsonian Magazine