With “Liberation Day” less than a week away, the latest tariff news to move markets was to the upside, when word came out that the tariffs would be more targeted and narrower than what President Trump had alluded to previously. The focus is on the “Dirty 15” – the phrase coined by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, referring to 15% of our trading partners (but those with which we run the largest trade deficits and make up most of our trading volume). Meaningful tariffs, subject to interpretation, will target these partners. However, the threat of sector-specific tariffs – those related to pharmaceuticals, semi-conductors, etc. may be unrealized, or at the very least, delayed. Below is a chart highlighting the countries in which we run the largest trade deficits/surpluses:
The Fed Holds Steady
There were no real surprises at the conclusion of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) two-day policy meeting last Wednesday. Chairman Powell stated that two rate cuts by the end of this year are still plausible, data-dependent, of course. Chairman Powell also acknowledged via the Summary of Economic Projections (forecasts from Committee members on numerous economic data points – GDP, inflation, unemployment) that inflation risks are to the upside (not conducive for rate cuts), while GDP growth forecasts were lowered (conducive for rate cuts). It is a constant battle with the FOMC to balance their dual mandate of price stability and full employment, trying to find that “sweet spot”. With the added layer of tariff uncertainty, the FOMC’s job has become much more difficult.
The Cautious Consumer Narrative Continues
The consumer is at the heart of the U.S. economy, and a recent release by the Conference Board on consumer confidence is yet another sign that GDP could be on the softer side for the first half of 2025. “Consumers’ optimism about future income – which had held up quite strongly in the past few months – largely vanished, suggesting worries about the economy and labor market have started to spread into consumers’ assessments of their personal situations” – Stephanie Guichard, senior economist, The Conference Board Consumer confidence in where the economy is headed hits 12-year low. Whether or not these survey results feed into actual consumer behavior, time will tell.
Financial Planning/Investment Strategy Corner
Tax Time
With less than three weeks to April 15th (and yes, I am a broken record) here are some last-minute steps you can take to reduce your taxable income and avoid tax penalties Tax Tips After January 1, 2025 - TurboTax Tax Tips & Videos. No one enjoys paying more in taxes than you have to, so help yourself.
Housing Market
As someone who is looking to buy a home in the next 12 months, it’s an incredibly difficult housing market. 30-year mortgage rates are stubbornly high at 6.5%-7% and probably won’t dip below this range anytime soon. I wanted to mention a few things buyers can do to help themselves (while these may seem obvious, many people overlook them – and I was guilty of this when I purchased my first home):
- Ask the seller to make concessions – whether it is closing costs or repairs, every dollar saved is worth the ask.
- Ask for a mortgage buydown – while not a permanent solution, it can ease the burden for a few years. In a mortgage buydown – the seller (or builder) pays an upfront fee that allows the buyer to have a reduced interest rate in the beginning years of the mortgage, before the rate works its way back to the original loan interest rate (usually over 3 to 4 years).
- Reset expectations – sometimes, your dollars just don’t go as far. Being realistic about what you can and can’t afford is paramount.
Quick Hits:
- March Madness enters its second weekend – for both the men and women. Here is a look at the updated brackets: Sweet 16 teams: March Madness bracket, schedule for NCAA Tournament; Women's basketball predictions: Sweet 16 expert picks for NCAA bracket
- As an avid coffee drinker – some news I don’t like to hear: Coffee shops need to raise their prices, but by how much? - Perfect Daily Grind
- Beautiful places to visit this time of year (NH and east TN make the list): 15 Jaw-dropping Places to View Spring Wildflowers in the U.S. | FinanceBuzz
- A recent visit makes this place one of my new favorites ViA VECCHiA - Italian Restaurant Portland, Maine | Wine Bar & Cocktails
Quote: “If we had no winter, the spring would not be so pleasant: if we did not sometimes taste of adversity, prosperity would not be so welcome.”
― Anne Bradstreet
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