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Volatility is Back, as Stocks Drop

On Friday last week the Dow dropped 665 points. Monday, the market was down most of the day but come late afternoon the selling accelerated dramatically. At one point, the Dow was down 1600 points. It rallied back some and ended Monday down 1175 points. Many are wondering what happened and why did the markets fall so far, so fast?

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Why Are Stocks Still Going Up?

Stocks have been going up ever since the Presidential election last November. There have been no significant pullbacks along the way, and stock market highs are reported by the media on a weekly basis. Clients are asking “Why are stocks still going up?”

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Why the Yield Curve is so Important

Economists study so-called leading economic indicators for evidence of coming recessions. One of the best predictors of U.S. recessions has been an “inverted yield curve”.  In fact, an inverted yield curve has preceded the last seven U.S. recessions.  

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Can the Stock Market and Economy Predict the Election?

By David Smith, CIMA® CFP ®

We are a little over a month away from the Presidential Election.  Polling data informs us how the race may come out, but there may be another predictor that’s starting to get more attention - the stock market.  According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, the stock market returns three months before an election have been prescient in predicting a winner.  Sam Stovall, a stock market expert at the firm, has crunched the numbers.  If stocks rise in the three months before the election, the party that controls the White House has the best chance of winning.  Stovall looked at data since the 1944 election.  When stocks rose three months before the election, the incumbent party won the Presidency 82% of the time.  If stocks were down during that stretch, the challenging party won 86% of the time.

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These Scammers are Clever!

By Tracey Daigle and Dave Robinson

We decided to share this true story with you from Tracey’s family because it illustrates just how clever scam artists can be by playing on natural human emotions.

This starts with a recent call to Tracey’s father-in-law, Fred Daigle Sr. He believed it to be his grandson, Bailey calling. Bailey is a student at the University of Richmond and was thought to be at college at the time.

Caller: “Hi, Grandpa.”

Fred Sr: “Hi Bailey.”

Caller: “I’m in trouble and need help. I’m in Ohio. I drove there for a funeral. I’ve been in a car accident. I may sound funny because I have a broken nose and split lip. The accident was my fault. I’m in jail. They are charging me with DUI. I need $1,600 bail money right away to get out.

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Keep on Spending!

By Dave Robinson, CFP ®

Consumer spending represents the largest percentage of the U.S. economy by far. We must spend for the economy to grow and for people to have work. Anyone else remember the old rock song “Keep on Dancing”? Sometimes you wonder if “Keep on Spending” would make for an apropos U.S. economic theme song! We suggest this tongue in cheek of course. But it is undeniable that our economic well-being links to our collective willingness to spend money.

For the sake of the economy, the U.S. consumer is a resilient spender. The 2008-2009 financial crisis rattled our confidence. Since the end of 2009 though, consumers have increased spending every quarter. In the second quarter of this year, consumer spending jumped over 4%. This was the highest quarterly increase since 2014.

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